NIW Filing Volume and Backlog: What USCIS Data Shows for 2026

Why this post is about backlog, not "days at Texas"

We will be direct about what we can and cannot tell you. USCIS does not give us a feed of case-by-case processing times, and we do not have per-service-center day counts. The only place to get a current processing-time estimate for your specific case is the official USCIS tool at uscis.gov/processing-times. Times move month to month, and any blog quoting an exact "4 to 8 months at the Texas Service Center" is repeating something it cannot verify.

What we do have is real. USCIS publishes quarterly I-140 statistics, and the figures below come straight from those reports covering 2024 Q1 through 2025 Q4 — eight quarters of actual receipts, approvals, denials, and the pending backlog. That data tells a clearer story about NIW timelines than any single "typical processing time" number, because the backlog is what processing time ultimately reflects.

How many NIW petitions are being filed

Across 2024 and 2025, USCIS received 129,825 EB-2 NIW I-140 petitions. Quarterly receipts ran heavy through 2024 and into early 2025 — 18,613 in 2024 Q4 and a peak of 20,141 in 2025 Q1 — then eased to 13,983 by 2025 Q4. Filing volume stayed high enough, for long enough, that the backlog grew every single quarter.

The pending backlog keeps climbing

This is the number that matters most for your planning. The pending NIW caseload — petitions filed but not yet decided — grew from 22,756 at the end of 2024 Q1 to 74,392 at the end of 2025 Q4. That is more than triple in two years, and it rose in every intervening quarter.

A backlog that grows steadily means the average wait is getting longer, not shorter. USCIS processed 74,177 NIW petitions over those eight quarters, but it received 129,825 — it took in roughly 1.75 petitions for every one it cleared. Until receipts fall below processing capacity, the queue lengthens. That is the honest read on NIW timelines right now.

The approval rate fell sharply through 2025

The other trend in the USCIS data is harder to miss. The NIW I-140 approval rate was 76.74% in 2024 Q1. It declined through the year and dropped fast in 2025: 53.97% in 2025 Q3, then 35.66% in 2025 Q4. Across all eight quarters the overall approval rate is 63.44% — but that average hides a steep slide. In 2025 Q4, USCIS denied more NIW petitions than it approved (5,356 denied versus 2,968 approved).

We are not going to speculate about the cause — adjudication standards, the mix of cases reaching decision, and policy shifts can all move this number, and the quarterly file does not break out why. What we can say plainly: a petition filed in this environment faces tougher odds than one filed two years ago, and a thin filing is more likely to draw a denial or a Request for Evidence.

What this means if you are filing now

• Plan for a long queue. With 74,392 petitions pending and the backlog still growing, build a generous wait into any decision that depends on I-140 approval.
• Check the official processing-time tool, not blog estimates. uscis.gov/processing-times is updated regularly and reflects your specific form and category. It is the only reliable source for an estimate.
• File early if you are in an EB-2 backlog. For petitioners chargeable to India or China, the priority date you lock in by filing the I-140 matters even if the date will not be current for years. The I-140 queue and the Visa Bulletin are two separate waits.
• A falling approval rate raises the cost of a weak filing. When more than half of recent decisions are denials, evidence gaps that might have slid through in 2024 are likelier to surface as an RFE or a denial now.

Premium processing changes speed, not strength

Premium processing is available for EB-2 NIW I-140 petitions and guarantees USCIS will take action within a set number of business days for an additional fee. Check uscis.gov for the current fee and timeframe, since both change. One thing premium processing does not change: "action" can mean an RFE or a denial, not an approval. Faster does not mean stronger. If your evidence has gaps, premium processing simply gets you to the RFE sooner.

It is most useful when you have a time-sensitive status decision riding on I-140 approval and a case you are confident in. It does nothing to improve the odds reflected in the declining approval rate above.

Where the appeal data fits

Separate from the I-140 filing statistics, we maintain a dataset of 6,362 AAO appeal decisions — NIW petitions that were denied and appealed. That data does not contain processing times either, but it does show which weaknesses draw the most scrutiny, with national-importance (Prong 1) failures the dominant pattern. If you want to compare service centers on the appeal record rather than on processing speed, the service center comparison tool breaks down AAO appeal outcomes by center.

Given the falling approval rate, pressure-testing your petition before you file is worth more than it used to be. Our $10 case review compares your profile to real AAO decisions, the Petition Builder drafts each section against the Dhanasar framework, and the free analysis dashboard lets you explore the underlying data yourself.